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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at TripleTactics TCG PTM Store Championship

decks
3 (13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 4-5-3
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296 · median 1300 · range 1193–1395 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067 Q1 1206 Q3 1393 1633
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 13.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.8% -14.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 9.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.9% -11.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 9.1% 0
Water Aetherwing 9.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.9% +6.6
Wind Seiryuu 9.1% 0
Fire Suited 4.5% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 44.5% -5.3
Water Fractal 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.0
Water Genbu 4.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.0% +1.9
Wind Exia 4.5% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 4.5% 0
Wind Razorgale 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.4% +21.4
Wind Tera Mage 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.4
Wind Umbra Diana 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.2% -12.4
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Noble Dissolution -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Longtail Grovesward -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Peer Beyond -1.00 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall -1.00 0 1 0
Slice and Dice +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/46298/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike